This article was a collaboration between my good friends
Megan,
Elise and myself. Our perspective and synthesized analysis of the elections:
The international community has brought much attention to
the Honduran presidential elections that took place on Sunday, November 24. The
presence of many national and international observers made for a relatively
peaceful day, but the political turmoil is far from over. Election authorities
have not given final results, and are dealing with accusation of electoral
fraud; however, projections show that nationalist candidate Juan Orlando
Hernandez will win the election.
While international coverage of the elections has grown
increasingly concerned in the last few weeks, the tension over these elections
has been mounting internally for years. This presidency will not be won in one
day of voting. The election results are the culmination of years of planning and
use of a political machine that points to inequality and structural weaknesses
in Honduras and not just fraud on Election Day.
National Party candidate Juan Orlando Hernandez’s predicted
victory did not just materialize on November 24th. It is a result of years of
careful planning, made possible by institutional weaknesses and a vulnerable
population. In a country with highly stratified economic classes, political
power and wealth are highly concentrated in the upper echelons of society. A
very small percentage of Hondurans, a mix of business magnates and families of
inherited wealth, form the oligarchy that works tirelessly to keep the status
quo in place. It is the very economic inequality that has gotten them where
they are that continues to keep them in power. But these wealthy few are not
easily painted with either a blue or red brush. Found at the top of every major
political party, they share a common knack for using anything as fodder for
political propaganda.
 |
Money may help you
but selling your rights will keep you enslaved |
It is no secret that Honduras has a very poor public
education system, and this too can always be used to one's advantage. It is
easier to manipulate people that are less educated, that don't have access to
information or live in isolated regions of the country. All of these factors
have continued to wear down the trust Hondurans have in the government and the
belief that things can change. Hernandez is an expert in using the political
system to win votes. He has served as the President of the National Congress
since 2010, and has used the position to consolidate
power and push through popular reforms including the hugely popular (70% of
the Honduran population are in
favor), and highly worrying military
police force.
More recently Hernandez’s media presence and campaign
rallies have been very strong and convincing. Honduras has no campaign finance
disclosure laws, so there is no way to know where Hernandez (or any of the
other candidates) obtained their money for the expensive campaign. Hernandez
was also accused of buying votes from vulnerable populations, either directly
or indirectly before the elections. Some example include giving away a National
Party “discount card”, wood burning stoves, and threatening to discontinue a
government social bonus program, the “Bono
10 mil” if he was not elected.
In talking to many Hondurans, a common thread has been the
expectation that Hernandez and the National Party would come out on top. Of
course, supporters of opposing parties were distrustful of his campaign, but
one has to acknowledge the number of people that cast their vote for him (even
going against their party loyalty) because he was giving them material goods,
benefits, and policies that appeased their fears of violence. While there is
still a palpable skepticism of transparency in the electoral process—the
reality is that he really did do whatever it took to get the real ballots cast
in his favor.
 |
| photo credit: Kathrine Rasmussen |
In spite of these political games, there was a genuine hope
for a different outcome. People hoped that this time, things could change. They
hoped that with a large international community looking on, there would be less
tolerance for corruption. People knew the electoral process was flawed, but
they showed up to cast their ballot, driven by a hope that things have to get
better.
One of the reasons for that hope was the change from a
bipartisan system to a multi-party system. Hernandez currently has only 34% of
the votes. While the non-nationalist vote was split among Libre (29%), PAC
(16%), and the Liberal Party (21%) in the presidential elections, the hope is
that this diversity of electoral opinion will come into full force in the
Congressional elections, where the National Party could only hold a minority of
seats. What will this look like for Hernandez's presidency? A potentially
divided Congress could signify less congressional action and more executive
power. However, the hope among those who did not vote for Hernandez is for an
executive branch held in check by a more balanced Congress that reflects the
diversity of Honduran opinion more than ever before.
The despair with the security concerns, economic woes, and
corruption combined with the sudden birth of more political options have led to
a more active, aware constituency that uses other democratic methods (protests,
political watchdog organizations, greater and more diverse dissemination of
information through the media, new political parties, etc.) to call for
justice. In a historically oppressed and disillusioned political atmosphere,
Hondurans have started to find their own voices. Hondurans will have to adjust
to the idea of having a president unsupported by the majority - an advantage to
the extent that Hondurans can respect their own prophetic voice, and use it to
work for change.
Was the whole political system and weak government going to
be turned upside-down in one election cycle? Maybe not. The inequality among
Honduran classes run deep, as do political ties to a bi-partisan system
controlled by an oligarchy. The obstacles for a new president--from any
party--are daunting. But we are hopeful that this political momentum will spark
the change that Honduras has been waiting for.
